Monday 24 February 2014


I meant to write this 3 days ago. I know Ukraine a little, and have good memories of visiting Kiev and Odessa (including the Eisenstein steps). The media were so obsessed with describing yet another incoherent uprising that they missed the big potential scenario. Now they are asking, more or less. The scenario runs thus.
President Yanukovych goes to the East, where he enjoys support. He musters, from remnants of the army and local militias, a force to claim back power. He does not have that force but as "democratically elected president" he invites Russian military support, which is forthcoming. Putin did this in Georgia, and he is former communist apparachik. What does America do? This is the most dangerous moment since the Cuban missile crisis. 
If the "West" had seen its interest threatened in the way that Russia sees on its behalf, they would be supporting "democracy" against the subversive mobs. 
Russia and the West as always operate according to perceived self-interest. It is ugly and extremely dangerous for all of us. And the decent people of Ukraine are left with a future that promises nothing good. Ukraine could be model of East-West co-operation. It is proving the reverse. Like Syria.